On Sept. 30, Micron told investors that memory supply will be "much tighter" in 2027 and 2028 than it was in 2026. In its prepared remarks, it said it has "completed agreements for the vast majority of our calendar 2027 HBM bit supply" at "significant price increases year over year." HBM is the stacked memory that sits next to AI chips. Micron also expects the industry to stay supply constrained in ordinary DRAM through both years. It said it does not "have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance."
The fix is new factory space, and Micron put dates on it. Its first Idaho fab is due to start wafer output in mid-2027 and a second in late 2028. A Japan DRAM expansion follows in late 2028. The first New York fab comes in 2030. Micron plans to spend more on factories, and says a majority of that increase is construction, mostly for clean room space in late 2028 and beyond. Micron also expects HBM shipments to grow faster than ordinary DRAM through 2028. My read: if you buy servers or PCs, the 2027 budget year falls before most of the relief. Our October look at the HBM supply squeeze covers the AI-chip side.
Before you sign a 2027 hardware quote, ask the vendor to put the memory price and its expiry date in writing. Ask whether the price assumes 2026 supply or 2027 supply. A quote with no expiry date on the memory line is a guess.