Evidence Records

A deal is announced once and has to be proven many times. Each record follows one commitment from its announcement through what happens next, using the primary documents.

We never state more than the documents prove. An agreement is not a completed deal. A prototype is not production. Planned capacity is not operating capacity. Anything we could not verify reads "Not established." Filing activity is not deal activity: a filing says something was disclosed, not that it worked out.

Confirmed: The filed document states it as fact.
Company-reported: The company's own expectation, target or description. Not independently checked.
Inferred: Our reading. A document does not say it outright.
Not established: We could not verify it from the documents. We do not guess.

Evidence record · As of Nov 3, 2026

Marvell and Lumentum: an all-stock merger agreement

Agreement signed
Closing pending
Integration unproven

Marvell signed an agreement to merge with Lumentum. The agreement is not a completed deal: it needs stockholder votes and regulatory approvals first.

Commitment type: Agreement and Plan of Merger (stock-for-stock, two-step merger through two Marvell subsidiaries)
Original announcement: Nov 1, 2026. Marvell reports it entered into the Merger Agreement on Nov. 1, 2026. The 8-K was filed Nov. 2.
Parties: Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL): Acquirer
Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE): Target
Java Merger Sub, Inc. and Java Merger Sub II, Inc.: Marvell subsidiaries used to carry out the merger

What the documents say

What was committed
Confirmed
Each Lumentum common share converts into 4.500 Marvell common shares, with cash only in place of fractional shares. Lumentum Series A preferred converts on the same ratio, or the holder may elect a new Marvell Series B preferred.
Source: 8-K, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Approvals the filing says are required
Confirmed
Adoption by Lumentum stockholders. Approval by Marvell stockholders of the share issuance and a charter amendment. Expiry or end of the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period and "certain other required regulatory approvals." Effectiveness of a Form S-4. Nasdaq listing of the new shares.
Source: 8-K, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Which "other" regulatory approvals
Not established
Not established. The 8-K does not name the agencies or countries.
Source: 8-K, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Outside Date (the date either side may walk away if the merger has not closed)
Confirmed
11:59 p.m. Pacific on Nov. 1, 2027, which may be extended to Feb. 1, 2028, May 1, 2028 and Aug. 1, 2028, in each case under certain circumstances if required regulatory approvals have not been obtained.
Source: 8-K, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Expected closing
Company-reported
First half of calendar year 2028, subject to stockholder approvals, regulatory approvals and other customary conditions.
Source: 425, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
How the expected closing sits against the Outside Date
Inferred
The expected closing window starts after the base Outside Date of Nov. 1, 2027. If the companies' own timing holds, at least one extension would be needed. Neither document says this outright.
Source: 8-K, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Fees if the deal fails
Confirmed
Marvell owes Lumentum $5.8 billion in specified circumstances (such as a withdrawn board recommendation). Lumentum owes Marvell $2.9 billion in corresponding circumstances. Marvell owes Lumentum $3.2 billion if the deal ends over failed or denied regulatory clearance after all other conditions are met.
Source: 8-K, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Form S-4 (the joint proxy and prospectus) filed?
Inferred
Not yet. No S-4 appears in the Marvell or Lumentum EDGAR filing lists through Nov. 3, 2026. The 8-K says one will be filed "as promptly as reasonably practicable."
Source: 8-K, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Stockholder votes and regulatory decisions
Not established
Not established. No meeting date has been set in the documents we read, and no regulatory decision has been filed.
Whether the combined company works as planned
Not established
Not established. Nothing can prove it before closing.

Next milestone

Marvell and Lumentum file the joint Form S-4, which sets out the stockholder meetings.

Company-reportedNo date stated. The 8-K says "as promptly as reasonably practicable" after Nov. 1, 2026.

Primary documents

Update history

Newest first. Entries are added, never removed. If a claim above later proves wrong, this record says so here.

Nov 3, 2026 · checked
Checked the Marvell and Lumentum EDGAR lists. No Form S-4, no amended 8-K and no completion filing yet. Nothing has changed since Nov. 2.
Nov 2, 2026 · filed
Marvell files the 8-K under Item 1.01 and a series of Rule 425 communications. Lumentum files its own 8-K the same day.
8-K →
Nov 1, 2026 · announced
Marvell, Lumentum and the two Marvell merger subsidiaries sign the Agreement and Plan of Merger.
8-K →

Evidence record · As of Nov 3, 2026

onsemi and Ferric: a cash acquisition with an earn-out

Agreement signed
Closing pending
Revenue payoff unproven

onsemi signed an agreement to buy Ferric for $600 million in cash, plus up to $175 million more if revenue milestones are met. The deal has not closed, and the milestone thresholds are redacted.

Commitment type: Agreement and Plan of Merger (cash acquisition with contingent earn-out)
Original announcement: Nov 2, 2026. The Merger Agreement is dated Nov. 2, 2026. onsemi's 8-K and press release are both dated Nov. 2.
Parties: Semiconductor Components Industries, LLC: Purchaser (wholly owned subsidiary of onsemi)
ON Semiconductor Corporation (onsemi) (ON): Parent of the purchaser
Ferric, Inc.: Company being acquired
Forge Merger Sub, Inc.: Purchaser subsidiary that merges into Ferric
Shareholder Representative Services LLC: Stockholder Representative for Ferric holders

What the documents say

Price
Confirmed
$600.0 million in cash, shared among eligible Ferric securityholders, subject to customary adjustments for Ferric's cash, debt, transaction costs and working capital.
Source: 8-K, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Contingent payment
Confirmed
Up to $175.0 million more in cash if specified revenue milestones are met. The agreement measures revenue from specified products over four consecutive calendar quarters, within a period that ends Dec. 31, 2029. It subtracts a "Holder-Funded Earnout Payment Amount" from the $175 million. We have not worked out what that amount is.
Source: 8-K exhibit, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
The revenue thresholds that trigger the contingent payment
Not established
Not established. The dollar thresholds are redacted in Exhibit 2.1.
Source: 8-K exhibit, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Conditions to closing
Confirmed
For both sides: expiry or end of the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period, no blocking order, and the required Ferric stockholder approval. For onsemi also: accurate representations, no material adverse effect at Ferric, and at least 90% of listed Ferric employees still on staff.
Source: 8-K exhibit, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Termination date
Confirmed
Either side may end the agreement if the deal has not closed by Feb. 1, 2027, subject to the agreement's limits on who may use that right.
Source: 8-K exhibit, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Expected closing
Company-reported
Fourth quarter of 2026 ("onsemi currently expects").
Source: 8-K, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
What Ferric makes
Company-reported
Integrated voltage regulator (IVR) technology for powering AI processors, per onsemi.
Source: 8-K exhibit, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Effect on onsemi's AI data center revenue
Company-reported
onsemi says it is raising its 2030 AI data center revenue target by $500 million, to more than $3 billion. This is a target, not a result.
Source: 8-K exhibit, filed Nov 2, 2026 →
Customers, shipments or revenue from Ferric's technology today
Not established
Not established. The documents we read give none.
HSR clearance
Not established
Not established. No filing reports that the waiting period has expired.

Next milestone

The Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period ends and the deal closes.

Company-reportedonsemi expects the fourth quarter of 2026. The agreement's termination date is Feb. 1, 2027.

Primary documents

Update history

Newest first. Entries are added, never removed. If a claim above later proves wrong, this record says so here.

Nov 3, 2026 · checked
Checked onsemi's EDGAR list. The only later documents are the 8-K above and an unrelated 8-K for earnings (Item 2.02) and a 10-Q. No amendment and no completion filing. Nothing has changed since Nov. 2.
Nov 2, 2026 · announced
onsemi's purchaser subsidiary signs the Agreement and Plan of Merger with Ferric. onsemi files the 8-K and a press release the same day.
8-K →

Our explainer on what onsemi is buying →

Evidence record · As of Nov 3, 2026

SpaceX and Apollo: a GPU lease that is still a promise

Commitment letter signed
Lease not yet completed
GPUs not yet delivered

SpaceX signed a binding commitment letter to enter a master finance lease for GPU equipment with an Apollo-managed entity. The lease itself has not been reported as signed, and no GPUs have been reported as delivered.

Commitment type: Binding commitment letter to enter into a master finance lease (equipment lease financing)
Original announcement: Oct 24, 2026. SpaceX reports it entered the binding commitment letter on Oct. 24, 2026. The 8-K (Item 8.01, Other Events) was filed Oct. 26.
Parties: Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) (SPCX): Lessee
An entity managed by Apollo Global Management, Inc.: Lessor (the specific entity is not named)

What the documents say

What exists today
Confirmed
A binding commitment letter "to enter into a master finance lease." The filing does not say the master finance lease has been signed.
Source: 8-K, filed Oct 26, 2026 →
What would be leased
Confirmed
Graphics processing unit (GPU) pods and related equipment, bought by the lessor and leased to SpaceX for use at data centers SpaceX selects.
Source: 8-K, filed Oct 26, 2026 →
Which data centers
Not established
Not established. The filing says only "data centers selected by the Company."
Source: 8-K, filed Oct 26, 2026 →
Structure
Confirmed
Equipment delivered in tranches. Each tranche gets its own lease schedule with a term of about five to five and one-quarter years from that schedule's commencement date.
Source: 8-K, filed Oct 26, 2026 →
Rent formula (the repayment formula)
Confirmed
Paid quarterly in advance. Each payment generally equals one-twentieth of the financed cost of the tranche, plus an amount at a fixed annual rate on the outstanding lease balance, plus certain ongoing costs and expenses.
Source: 8-K, filed Oct 26, 2026 →
What the formula implies
Inferred
One-twentieth of the financed cost each quarter repays the financed cost over twenty quarters, which is five years. This is our arithmetic. The filing does not say what happens in the last quarter or whether SpaceX owes or may pay anything at the end.
Source: 8-K, filed Oct 26, 2026 →
The fixed rate
Not established
Not established. The filing says it "will be determined at pricing," which comes before SpaceX enters the master lease.
Source: 8-K, filed Oct 26, 2026 →
Total size
Company-reported
SpaceX expects aggregate principal payments under the lease schedules to total approximately $40 billion over their terms.
Source: 8-K, filed Oct 26, 2026 →
Closing conditions for the master lease
Not established
Not established. The filing says only "certain specified closing conditions."
Source: 8-K, filed Oct 26, 2026 →
Expected timing
Company-reported
Master lease expected to close before year end. Lease schedules expected to start in the first half of 2027, when the GPUs are delivered.
Source: 8-K, filed Oct 26, 2026 →
Whether the master lease has been signed
Not established
Not established. SpaceX's EDGAR list through Nov. 3, 2026 shows no filing after the Oct. 26 8-K reporting it.
GPUs delivered or operating
Not established
Not established. The filing describes delivery as a future event.
Source: 8-K, filed Oct 26, 2026 →

Next milestone

SpaceX and the Apollo-managed lessor sign the master finance lease and price the fixed rate.

Company-reportedBefore year end, per SpaceX. The first lease schedules are expected to start in the first half of 2027.

Primary documents

SpaceX 8-K, Item 8.01 (Other Events)8-K · filed Oct 26, 2026 · accession 0001104659-26-118614

Update history

Newest first. Entries are added, never removed. If a claim above later proves wrong, this record says so here.

Nov 3, 2026 · checked
Checked SpaceX's EDGAR list. No 8-K or other filing reports that the master finance lease was signed, priced or amended. Nothing has changed since Oct. 26.
Oct 26, 2026 · filed
SpaceX files the 8-K under Item 8.01.
8-K →
Oct 24, 2026 · announced
SpaceX enters a binding commitment letter to enter into a master finance lease with an Apollo-managed entity.
8-K →

Our report on what the filing leaves out →

Found a mistake? Tell us. Fixes are logged on the corrections page. Facts only. Not investment advice.